Bemidji State's veteran coach Tom Serratore greeted his Monday morning phone call with the intensity of a two-man forecheck. A casual two-hour time window had been slammed down to a six-minute glimmer of light; crucial meetings, film sessions, and practice had all taken on new urgency. There was a rumor of another series cancellation afloat, and media requests were merely B priorities. Serratore is nothing if not pragmatic.

The Beavers veteran coach had just come off a season-shaping sweep of then-No. 5 Bowling Green, a pair of gripping 2-1 wins (the finale was actually 3-1 thanks to a Brendan Harris empty-net goal). These nail-biters are known to many as “pitcher’s duels” because the goalies’ dominance often resembling that of baseball pitchers. Bemidji and Bowling Green both started their aces in both contests this past weekend: Zach Driscoll of Bemidji and Eric Dop for BGSU, a pair of veterans with 14 shutouts and 80 wins between them in the Division I show. Serratore acknowledged the goaltending excellence but had no time for a baseball analogy.

“I don’t know about pitcher’s duels. We’re two teams that are tight, there’s just a small margin of error in every one of these games that we play these guys,” said Serratore, whose Beavers had split another gripping series with the Falcons down in Bowling Green two weeks ago. “They’re all close, tight games, and those are the games you want to be in.”

Like baseball, goaltending is a statistics-driven business, whether the sample size is an entire season or an individual game. Goaltending’s statistical bedrock is save percentage, which during less hectic times is one of Serratore’s pet subjects. He is known to project how a .930 save percentage goalie, compared to their .900 counterpart, will prevent 30 fewer goals over a 30-game season. And when you compress that into a one-goal game in which both teams take 33 shots, the guy with the .930 save percentage allows one fewer goal.

This weekend’s showdown in Bemidji was a real-world experiment in probability and statistics. Based on last year’s body of work, Driscoll had a .937 SV %, while his counterpart Dop kicked out .902 % of shots he faced, both having played in 33 games last season. In last week’s contests, the goalie with the .035 save percentage advantage allowed one fewer goal, as Bemidji swept the set. Serratore appreciates his numerical edge, it’s like sitting at a craps table with loaded dice.

“No doubt, no doubt it gives us confidence,” said Serratore, who made a point of giving props to Dop before concluding his dissertation on Driscoll. “If you’ve got a goalie who can consistently stop pucks, and be close to a ‘92’ (Driscoll sits at .922 in 11 games this year), you’re in pretty good shape.”

Just like elite MLB hurlers, goalies sometimes need a big assist from their fellow defenders. This past Friday, Driscoll mishandled a puck and relied on teammate Kyle Looft to make his own sprawling save, preserving the 2-1 lead late within the game’s closing minutes.

.@BSUBeaversMHKY Kyle Looft saving Zach Driscoll's bacon vs BGSU pic.twitter.com/gsa4djrL0J

— Tim Rappleye (@teeraps) January 25, 2021

“Unbelievable,” said Serratore in the post-game. “I thought it was a goal.” 

This was a prefect example about how winning DI hockey games is not merely a matter of cold sabermetrics, but grit, heart, and the occasional lucky bounce. But when you arrive at crunch time in a 14-game league schedule, it helps to have an ace on the hill.

“We have a very good hockey team,” said Serratore, coming off his club’s sweep of a top-10 team. “We’ve got great leadership and we have a guy between the pipes that has the ability of winning us games. He’s very confident, he’s very experienced in college hockey.”

And over the last two seasons in The Show, he’s arrived at that winning number: .930

Tim Rappleye is the author of two books: Jack Parker's Wiseguys and Hobey Baker, Upon Further Review. You can find him on Twitter.