The WCHA’s version of Ali-Frazier is finally here. 

Bowling Green and Minnesota State are the heavyweights of the WCHA: they staged a bombastic championship last March, both represented the conference in the NCAAs, and are the two highest-ranked WCHA teams this season (MSU No. 3, BGSU No. 15). 

Although Minnesota State has worn the crown as the winningest team in college hockey since coach Mike Hastings took over in 2012, his Mavericks haven’t been able to shake pesky contender Bowling Green, splitting their last 10 with the Falcons. The Mavericks wrested the WCHA championship trophy out of Bowling Green’s hands in gut-wrenching fashion last March, only to see Bowling Green return the favor with an identical scoreline in the October rematch, both bouts needing an overtime round. 

In 2019-20, the two heavyweights have split a pair of games. Last year the two squads took turns sweeping the other on home ice. Hastings’ 20-3-1 Mavericks might run roughshod over the rest of the country, but when it comes to Bowling Green, it’s like a Rocky Movie: the winner is the one standing at the final bell.

“Since we entered the league together, us and Bowling Green have gone to battle multiple times,” Hastings said. “It’s always: ‘Is it overtime? Is it a one-goal game? Is it an empty-netter?’ A lot of respect for them, and they deserve it.”

The Matchup on Paper

Statistics indicate that the Mavericks are indeed a juggernaut: they lead the country in both power play and penalty kill efficiency, and a staggering plus-55 goal differential. But Bowling Green is no slouch, leading the nation in power play goals (29) and shots differential (plus-228). 

There is one vital category, however, in which Minnesota State holds a major advantage, and that is in goal. MSU sophomore Dryden McKay leads the nation with a mind-numbing .950 save percentage. BGSU’s goalie Eric Dop, on the other hand, has a pedestrian .908 percentage. In a game with 40 shots apiece, that translates to a 4-2 win for the Mavericks. Even if BGSU outshoots MSU by 10, 40-30, the Mavericks still win 3-2.

What’s at Stake

There are a lot of PairWise points as stake, but those would be essentially negated in a split. A sweep by BGSU over the No. 3 Mavericks goes a long way toward putting the Falcons into the NCAA at-large comfort zone. Their home sweep of the Mavs last season was just enough to get them into the NCAAs. On the other hand, if BGSU is swept at home, they will fall on the wrong side of the bubble with some heavy lifting ahead to get back into contention.

From the Minnesota State perspective, a sweep of BGSU on the road will replenish the computer points they lost at the hands of St. Cloud State in December, and go a long way toward securing them a No. 1 seed in the 2020 NCAA regionals. If they are swept in Bowling Green, they will likely share a regional with a higher-ranked squad, making them a longer shot to finally break through and get to the Frozen Four.

Last week Falcons first-year coach Ty Eigner said their series with Michigan Tech “had a playoff feel to it.” Let’s call that an opening-round playoff series; this one feels more like a regional final.

It’s No. 3 Minnesota State vs No. 15 Bowling Green at Slater Arena. It’s a battle of heavyweights, and it’s only January.

Tim Rappleye is the author of Jack Parker's Wiseguys: The National Champion BU Terriers, the Blizzard of '78, and the Road to the Miracle on Ice. He can be reached on Twitter @TeeRaps.