The 2025 NHL Draft will officially begin Friday and it really could not come any sooner at this point. The uncertainty surrounding any draft is usually high, but particularly so this year. 

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Though the consensus of the No. 1 pick has consolidated around Erie Otters defenseman Matthew Schaefer, there does at least seem to be some question about exactly how the rest of the top 10 will go. It is always difficult to separate fact from fiction at this time of year, especially in the buildup to the draft. However, there at least seems to be reasonable and believable traction around some of the most recent buzz.

So here’s a bit of a breakdown of all the things that need to be sorted out for the draft. 

It Seems Certain Matthew Schaefer Will Go No. 1

At this point, there is next to no question that Matthew Schaefer will be picked first overall. The New York Islanders have a local kid in James Hagens, but the tug-at-your-heartstrings moment for Long Islanders does not seem to be in the offing. There is enough of a perceived gap between Shaefer and Hagens that the Isles will not buck consensus and take the player that has at least a chance to become their long-term No. 1 defenseman. 

Mathieu Darche has a lot of tough decisions to make as a new general manager, but this is not one of them. He has not outright said the team is taking Schaefer, but all indications and all belief in scouting circles is that will be the pick.

I also don’t believe it to be particularly realistic that the Isles can get back into the top 10 to have a chance to take Hagens anyway. I’m not sure the assets that they could use to do it successfully beyond something having to pay something more than they'd be willing to.

Michael Misa Vs. Anton Frondell For No. 2 overall

I know I put this in my mock draft and it caused a stir, but I have spoken with numerous sources who say that the San Jose Sharks have not finalized their choice on No. 2. There is legitimate debate between Michael Misa and Anton Frondell for that slot. I have also heard there could be a third forward that they have in the debate.

More people that I have talked to since that mock draft came out believe the most likely result is that the Sharks do end up taking Michael Misa at No. 2. 

What I will also say is that when information like this becomes public, it is often not by accident. If other teams are hearing this, there’s some telegraphing going on, either shaking trees for potential deals or seeing what info can be mined from other teams. In some cases – like when there was very late intel that slipped out that Montreal was likely to take Juraj Slafkovsky over Shane Wright – it’s to prepare the fans a bit that it might not go the way they expect.

I know some people have called this a smokescreen, but if it is, it would be a fairly weird one. I'm not sure how such a smokescreen would benefit the Sharks. If Misa is the highest-valued player externally, wouldn't they want everyone to believe they're taking him?

Mike Grier said in his recent press conference that they are not trading the pick, but also didn’t reveal who he’s taking or where he’s leaning. Not taking Misa would still be a surprise, but perhaps not as big of one without this information circulating.

Anton Frondell Likely Won’t Go Lower Than Third

Regardless of what happens with the San Jose Sharks and Anton Frondell, I believe he will likely not slip past the Chicago Blackhawks at No. 3. That is what most scouts believe as well. The most likely scenario teams outside of the top three are preparing for is Misa at No. 2 and Frondell at No. 3.

Frondell would offer Chicago a potential No. 2 center – or even a No. 1 if Connor Bedard is ever moved to wing. If San Jose does pull off the surprise, then Chicago would very quickly select Michael Misa and feel pretty happy about it.

The gap between the two players for the teams in this range seems to be smaller than you might expect, though there are others in the industry who think Misa is far and away the No. 2 prospect in this class. 

Of all the things that could happen at the draft, the most likely seems that Schaefer, Misa and Frondell will be the first three picks come Friday.

Brady Martin And Caleb Desnoyers Should Go Very Early

Utah holds the No. 4 pick and there is a lot of talk about what they will do with it. A trade seems unlikely, but not altogether impossible if the right kind of roster player could be there for a team close to competing.

More likely, however, is Utah takes Caleb Desnoyers or Brady Martin. The love fest surrounding those two players as the season ended has not abated and teams like both an awful lot. Neither has the offensive ceiling of Porter Martone or James Hagens, but because they are two-way centers with high motors, they’re viewed as potential winning players.

Desnoyers to me makes the most sense for Utah based on what they have in their system right now. Logan Cooley is their No. 1 center, but Desnoyers would be an ideal No. 2, especially with his legitimate two-way ability.

Martin is the hard-hitting forward raised on a farm with charm on top of snarl. I don’t know if a single player did themselves more favors with the interview process in the combine. He has enough skill to be good secondary scoring, but the top-line scoring doesn’t seem likely.

Sam Bennett winning the Conn Smythe as the abrasive forward who scores and causes so much trouble for the opposition has teams thinking that kind of player could have a lot more value than a top-line scorer. Bennett was picked fourth overall in his draft year.

The Roger McQueen Watch Will Start At No. 5

Where will Roger McQueen go? The 6-foot-5 center with skill and skating ability who missed most of the season with a back injury is absolutely on the radar of teams in the top 10. The question is which team is willing to roll the dice on the health issues that kept McQueen sidelined. 

I have been told from multiple teams, they are watching Nashville as one of the earlier potential options for McQueen. It is believed they want to try and get bigger and more skilled at the same time. I believe that rules out Hagens here even though he’d probably be the most dynamic player the Preds have ever drafted. That said, Desnoyers and Martin very likely would get consideration in this range, depending on which of them is available.

Barry Trotz has said in the past that he wants to take swings on upside. Drafting McQueen would be that. He has potential to be a No. 1 center, but the big if when it comes to health is why some GMs and scouting directors have some nervousness about taking McQueen.

If it’s not McQueen, I have heard that Porter Martone is a realistic option for the Preds as well at No. 5. McQueen and Martone are probably the most skilled of the bigger players in this draft, which should make them attractive options to most teams in the top 10, but particularly so to the Preds.

If McQueen does not go to the Predators, it is unclear what teams are going to be willing to take the swing, but the general sense I am getting is that there may be a bit less concern about the back injury among top-picking teams than previously believed. 

James Hagens’ Potential Fall Down The Board Will Lead To Regret

This is more of a chance to opine, but based on what I have heard around scouting circles is that James Hagens is very unlikely to go in the first five picks. There’s also a good chance he slips past No. 6 and No. 7.

If James Hagens does fall down the board, I don’t think it’s got a lot to do with James Hagens. I think it would have more to do with team fit in the range and how many teams are going to value the size component.

Part of it is where certain teams fell in the draft order. The San Jose Sharks have a very similar player in Will Smith. The Blackhawks have a glut of sub 6-foot forwards in their system, Utah’s best two forwards are similarly sized, and maybe Philly would feel the same way about some of their recent picks and rookies that lack in the size department. So it could just be bad luck for Hagens this year in some regards.

With all due respect to Brady Martin, who I think is a sensational player and is going to help a team, if he ever comes close to the level of production I expect James Hagens to reach at the NHL level, I would be very surprised. There is a different skill and hockey sense profile between the two and there’s about an inch and a half of difference in height. There is considerable difference in the strength and physicality department department. And I totally understand the enticement of Martin, who I have listed at No. 9 in this class.

I have grown more and more confused about why James Hagens has slipped on so many team lists and was No. 7 on Bob McKenzie’s scout consensus rankings on TSN. 

He didn’t dominate college hockey this year, but I still think we’re talking about one of the most dynamic players in the entire draft. His overall skills, speed, playmaking ability and underrated compete level on top of good character would seemingly make him a lock to be a future star for a team.

The goal for every team is to win the Stanley Cup. While you definitely need size and physicality to build that kind of team, you need talent and production. Hagens has a chance to be one of the most productive players in this class based on what we’ve witnessed in the last three years.

It is as if we’ve forgotten that he is the NTDP’s fifth all-time leading scorer, surpassing some of the very best players in USA Hockey’s long history. 

I just think players like James Hagens are extremely hard to find and whoever gets the benefit of this perceived slip, if it does go that way, they’ll be thrilled to have a potential franchise building block.

Penguins Get No. 12 Pick From Rangers

The Pittsburgh Penguins now have two picks in the top half of the first round thanks to the New York Rangers deciding to give up No. 12 this year in order to keep their 2026 NHL Draft pick. That completes the J.T. Miller trade that was completed in concert with the Rangers, Penguins and Vancouver Canucks.

The Penguins have acquired the 12th pick (originally belonging to the New York Rangers) in the 2025 NHL Draft, completing the trade with the Vancouver Canucks on Jan. 31.

The Penguins now hold 2 picks in the first round, and six picks in the top-100.

Details:… pic.twitter.com/gSpGvfNTVl

— Pittsburgh Penguins (@penguins) June 24, 2025

I had advocated on a Rangers-based podcast with Vince Mercogliano that the Rangers should probably keep the pick. They know what is there at No. 12 and don’t know where they’ll pick in 2026. There’s a chance that pick is later.

What I think is also fair is that the value of landing a high pick next year is much higher. If you end up in the lottery range, you get no choice and Pittsburgh gets that pick. That would sting.

There’s a good chance New York saw what was going to be available at No. 12 and simply felt it wasn’t strong enough to give up next year’s pick. That’s the most likely scenario and potentially an indictment of this class.

I think there is still good value for teams in the 10-22 range, but we start to see a bigger drop off as we go down further. 

The Rangers could have gotten a premium defense prospect or one of the best remaining centers or a winger with some scoring pop. Instead, that opportunity belongs to the Penguins, which now own picks 11 and 12.

Pittsburgh would potentially have an enticing package to move up in the draft, but I think their best course of action may be standing pat and making both picks. I’d expect them to get one of the top defensemen in the draft with one of those picks and a potential scorer, too.

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